Pronóstico de precio energético em colombia: Una aplicación econométrica

Translated title of the contribution: Forecast of the energy price in colombia: An econometric application

Mónica Arango, Jhon Díaz, Yamile Ramírez

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Forecasting the price of electric energy is of the utmost importance for entrepreneurs, academics and regulators, as this market is essential for the economic development of the countries. Its forecast is a challenge, since it is a basic product that has high levels of volatility, because its behavior depends on the climate, the price of fuels and the limitations for its storage. For this reason, a method is proposed to forecast the price of electricity in the Colombian market, based on economic models; ARIMA-GARCH. Through the statistics, it was concluded that the model of mayor adjustment for the variation of the price in media is an ARMA (14.10)–GARCH (1.1), indicating that the decision makers will consider the results of the last 14 days to design your investment strategies.

Translated title of the contributionForecast of the energy price in colombia: An econometric application
Original languageSpanish
Pages (from-to)663-676
Number of pages14
JournalRISTI - Revista Iberica de Sistemas e Tecnologias de Informacao
Volume2020
Issue numberE27
StatePublished - Mar 2020

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