TY - JOUR
T1 - Probabilistic landslide risk assessment in water supply basins
T2 - La Liboriana River Basin (Salgar-Colombia)
AU - Hidalgo, Cesar Augusto
AU - Vega, Johnny Alexander
N1 - Funding Information:
This paper was written at the University of Medellin, which gave part of the financial support for the development of the research project. The authors declare that the source of the funding was not involved in the study design nor in the collection, analysis or interpretation of the data. It was involved neither in writing the report nor in the decision to submit the article for publication. The information for the development of this study was obtained from the project "Programa Integral Red Agua (Piragua)" administered by both the University of Medellin and the Corantioquia Corporation. The project was developed using EPADYM software, an innovation process product from the University of Medellin. The scope of the study is within the guidelines and products of the research program "Vulnerability, resilience and risk of communities and supply basins affected by landslides and avalanches,” code 1118-852-71251, from the project “Functions to assess vulnerability due to water shortages caused by landslides and avalanches: micro-basins of southwest Antioquia,” code 71292, and contract 80740-492-2020 administered by Fiduprevisora and the University of Medellin, with resources from the National Financing Fund for Science, Technology and Innovation, “Francisco José de Caldas.”
Funding Information:
The information for the development of this study was obtained from the project "Programa Integral Red Agua (Piragua)" carried out by both the University of Medellin and Corantioquia Corporation. The project was developed using EPADYM software, an innovation process product from the University of Medellin. The scope of the study is within the guidelines and products of the research program "Vulnerability, resilience and risk of communities and supply basins affected by landslides and avalanches” code 1118-852-71251, from the Project “Functions to assess vulnerability due to water shortages caused by landslides and avalanches: micro-basins of southwest Antioquia” code 71292, and contract 80740- 492-2020 administered by Fiduprevisora and the University of Medellin, with resources from the National Financing Fund for Science, Technology and Innovation, “Francisco José de Caldas.”
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Landslides are natural hazards that represent a huge economic burden and cause the loss of human life around the world. In countries such as Colombia, the mass movement events that cause the highest number of deaths and economic losses are often related to river or stream flooding caused by landslides in basins. Therefore, it is necessary to develop tools that estimate and assess landslide risk in such areas. This study presents a methodology to assess the risk associated with landslides in streams or river basins. The hazard posed by landslides is evaluated considering probabilistic methods that include the effects of rainfall and earthquakes. In addition, this study assesses the probability of a sliding mass reaching riverbeds and the probability of riverbed obstruction. Vulnerability is then estimated using impact curves based on the obstruction height. Finally, risk is estimated as the probability that economic losses occur along the riverbed. This methodology is based on probability methods, such as the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method, and the punctual estimates method (PEM). The methodology was applied in the La Liboriana River basin, in the municipality of Salgar in the northwestern Colombian Andes. On May 18, 2015, this mountainous and tropical area suffered a flash flood caused by landslides in the basin, which killed more than 100 inhabitants and caused infrastructure damage and significant economic losses. The results suggest that the proposed method coherently assesses the hazard posed by landslides and that the expected losses are comparable with the records from previous events.
AB - Landslides are natural hazards that represent a huge economic burden and cause the loss of human life around the world. In countries such as Colombia, the mass movement events that cause the highest number of deaths and economic losses are often related to river or stream flooding caused by landslides in basins. Therefore, it is necessary to develop tools that estimate and assess landslide risk in such areas. This study presents a methodology to assess the risk associated with landslides in streams or river basins. The hazard posed by landslides is evaluated considering probabilistic methods that include the effects of rainfall and earthquakes. In addition, this study assesses the probability of a sliding mass reaching riverbeds and the probability of riverbed obstruction. Vulnerability is then estimated using impact curves based on the obstruction height. Finally, risk is estimated as the probability that economic losses occur along the riverbed. This methodology is based on probability methods, such as the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method, and the punctual estimates method (PEM). The methodology was applied in the La Liboriana River basin, in the municipality of Salgar in the northwestern Colombian Andes. On May 18, 2015, this mountainous and tropical area suffered a flash flood caused by landslides in the basin, which killed more than 100 inhabitants and caused infrastructure damage and significant economic losses. The results suggest that the proposed method coherently assesses the hazard posed by landslides and that the expected losses are comparable with the records from previous events.
KW - Landslide
KW - Probabilistic assessment
KW - Risk
KW - River basins
KW - Vulnerability riverbeds
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85107720814&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s11069-021-04836-0
DO - 10.1007/s11069-021-04836-0
M3 - Artículo
AN - SCOPUS:85107720814
VL - 109
SP - 273
EP - 301
JO - Natural Hazards
JF - Natural Hazards
SN - 0921-030X
IS - 1
ER -