Pronóstico de precio energético em colombia: Una aplicación econométrica

Mónica Arango, Jhon Díaz, Yamile Ramírez

Resultado de la investigación: Contribución a una revistaArtículorevisión exhaustiva

Resumen

Forecasting the price of electric energy is of the utmost importance for entrepreneurs, academics and regulators, as this market is essential for the economic development of the countries. Its forecast is a challenge, since it is a basic product that has high levels of volatility, because its behavior depends on the climate, the price of fuels and the limitations for its storage. For this reason, a method is proposed to forecast the price of electricity in the Colombian market, based on economic models; ARIMA-GARCH. Through the statistics, it was concluded that the model of mayor adjustment for the variation of the price in media is an ARMA (14.10)–GARCH (1.1), indicating that the decision makers will consider the results of the last 14 days to design your investment strategies.

Título traducido de la contribuciónForecast of the energy price in colombia: An econometric application
Idioma originalEspañol
Páginas (desde-hasta)663-676
Número de páginas14
PublicaciónRISTI - Revista Iberica de Sistemas e Tecnologias de Informacao
Volumen2020
N.ºE27
EstadoPublicada - mar 2020

Palabras clave

  • ARIMA-GARCH model
  • Electricity price forecast

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